Commentary Archives



Range bound market cycling lower indicates further sell-off to come "BUT"
some very significant time cycle points and other extremes were made on 11-13 Thur. The benefit of the doubt should be given to the trend which is absolutely Bear Market Major! SPY needs to close above ~98 or 980 S&P cash for anything other than that to be the truth. Rydex accounts are long currently anticipating early entry into a violent bear rally but may switch to flat or short without notice.



Corruption Bailouts make for very uninteresting and uninviting stock
markets. The Treasury / Fed / SEC / "W" etc: have pretty much destroyed in 2 years what it took over 100 years to build. "HOW DOES WALL STREET REGAIN THE PUBLIC'S TRUST AND CONFIDENCE AGAIN" these dirtbags keep repeating!
Chopsaw trading will be the best possible outcome for a while in stocks.
Other markets provide some attractive opportunities still yet to be ruined entirely by DC and Wall Street, don't wait though!

Cyclical bull move in a Secular Big Bad Bear. Trapped longs from the highs on 20080919 of "Paulson's Puke Peak", baby boomers, etc: Should make for mild overhead resistance at ~1020 - 1120 = "Battle of Little Big Horn" on the S&P. While 1180-1220 S&P = "Battle of Stalingrad and Berlin" combined.




Price action for Mon./Tues. election markets may give opportunity to fade any "significant" (whatever that mean these days) price spike. A one day spike to ~1020 S&P = probable flat on indices retain long energy and metals w/ possible small scale short on indices if a small miracle should occur.
~1120 on S&P still = "The Golden Pig" for short postions although "Gov. Slop Bucket Bailouts" may already be running dry, so range bound market/position management are the more likely scenario into years end and into Jan. 2009 for my best estimate at this time. Fri. 10/31 high/low = the next starting count for potential resumption lower or second leg higher.


Opinions flourish about the "buying opportunity of a lifetime" (including Warren's w/the greatest respect) although in the short term due to Gov. intervention and unprecedented oversold metrics, this "should" help any further bounce that "may" still be coming, it is not a good picture for the longer term trend. Targets remain at ~1020-1120 , should ~1120 be reached in the next 1-5 days (very ambitious) first short sell of ~ 30-45% is getting locked and loaded.



UnF......g believable! As posted on Monday 1.) Everyone looking for a bounce got drilled, 2.) No prior historical benchmark to lean against, 3.) New historical extremes in almost every financial market do not necessarily mark a long term bottom. Short term bounce may not even materialize at this point, a possible congestion range at the lows to work off oversold extremes before possible next attempt at new lows. That said , should a sharp bounce actually occur, within 1-5 days, looking to sell get flat and possible scale in shorts at ~1020-1120 price levels. Hope is not an investment strategy



What can anyone say...? Another great buying opportunity... Kudlow/Cramer.. anyone? Capitulation again thwarted at last hour. Increased long exposure from 60% net long up to 90% scaled in today. Looking to likely sell into any rally up to 1130-1160, look to get short as close to 1220 as possible get long back above 1240-1260, send your thanks to hank!!!!!



Stated company fundamentals and economic stats practically meaningless!!!
Technicals previously as semi-reliable are rendered almost as useless!
Intervention / secret plans etc: make the word "INVESTING" nothing of the sort. WRITE TO YOUR POLITICAL REPRESENTITIVE AND SAY NO MORE!!!!! NOT ONE PENNY FOR THESE SCOUDERALS!!!!



Market lows "should" be in for the year. Long term look out below as bear market sucker rallies are deceptive and cunning unlike bull markets. Long indices, energy, metals, Japan and short bonds. Government slop bucket sounds the hog calling!!!



Bailouts for Billionaires, Nationalized Government Housing Projects for Everyone and now... Bridge Loans to Nowhere!!!
Oh well... make a few bucks riding the Government Slop Bucket til the election and then see what/where next...all aboard!!!!

BTW: who cares about earnings... they really don't matter anyway on a Government Pig Farm.

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