Market range 5% - 7.5% in play. Break-out close above ~1280 cieling = buy/sell level to a 1220 - 1175/1265 potential range floor. Sideways price action between these levels for next 3-10 days is current estimation. Eventual "election rally" is the 3-4 month estimation until the real bear market re-asserts itself upon "Goldilocks" once again.
Market range 5% - 7.5% in play. Break-out close above ~1280 cieling = buy/sell level to a 1220 - 1175/1265 potential range floor. Sideways price action between these levels for next 3-10 days is current estimation. Eventual "election rally" is the 3-4 month estimation until the real bear market re-asserts itself upon "Goldilocks" once again.
S&P suddenly breakeven for this month of July and ironically since 1998... Oh Boy! 1265 on the S&P marks the line of scrimage either way. Rest of week looking for a little more chop range and consolidation before any break-out back to the upside can be a"potential" safe short term buy for an "elction rally"... oh brother!!! QQQQ,IWM and a few others looking suspicious.
Short 20% R2K looking to scale in add on S&P and NDX. XLF,EEM and IYR have potential sell set-ups as well but taxpayer forced / Wall Street welfare / turns any sell in Finanancials a difficult proposition temorarily. "Fee Market Crapitalism" means they play and you pay!
90% cash position 10% Precious Metals in Rydex EOD . Sell levels lined out above current market, buy levels (although questionable) lined out below. Strong upside move very possible from here ~ 1260 S&P. 1320-40 looking to fade the first rally, temporarily intermeadiatte term may be higher, longer term looking to re-load full short position again.
First test of bear market "rally" today, ~ 1260 as mentioned yesterday. Sold 1/2 long postions in Rydex EOD went long small piece in Rydex Energy funds. 1175-1165 S&P "potential" re-load for longs, 1380-1340 S&P begins levels where "potential" re-loads on shorts. Stay tuned!
Yeuup....! Typical bear market bounce, a bit over due. ~$126.50 on SPY = first price tag to test. XLE, XLF & GDX/GLD trading against each other in near term reversion. Where to start selling this stock market "rally"/bounce is the real ?????
What a wasted free shot... Market held prisoner to its own 5 day range 1175 - 1165 S&P = wash out splat level but grinding price action tells of bear market malaise with zero elasticity near term. Sell or Buy first 2.5%-5% spike either way from here is the look out estimation. GLD, GDX,SLV, signaling fear of bank run in slow motion. Longer term what's left of your wallet?
Market churn at the lows but not a selling climax bottom, but, 1-3 day pop back bounce of 5% - 7.5% min. greater probability than not. SPY B2 price tag of $122.50 hit perfectly! If not for weekend, current long allocation would have been increased. XLF and other financials still have the greatest short cover upside potential but longer term sell rallies of 15%-30% in this sector as more statements of "well capitalized" reassurance are blathered about!
More of the same.. sell on rally mantra is so perverse that any 2.5% move off of an intra-day low is "close enough"! Most local price and sentiment indicators are extreme enough to the point that they've almost lost their value as contrarian due to the lack of large block volume and range expansion, Without this last ingredient... forget about it!!!
