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Stock Market range price action implys to sell any rallys at 1370-1400 any. XLF still a sell and XLE sell is a stop out above ~$75.75 but still a short canidate to watch for short based on a mean reversion.
Credit deflation in progress, yet no real confessions by the perpetrators.
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Stock market gets next test of 1320 on S&P or 132 on SPY. Congestion range price action in progress. Plenty of swing freedom available for 3%-5% bread and butter moves. XLE sets up for low risk short (your kidding right?) NO... really ! XLF easy money sell also for a few sticks. Risk management stops on everything as always goes without saying!!! Happy Valentines Day...red all over.
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Stock Market short term probabilities = slightly better for a quick bounce to sell again ~2% higher, unless a deep sell-off takes out the lows or close to the lows of 01/22/07, should that sell-off occur before a bounce, buy set-up exists for longer term bear market flatulence rally!!!!
Stock Market gets desperate ooooversold drunk dog bounce! Mean reversion trade in progress. If market cannot hold today's lows,and get at least a 2.5% move up, serious capitulation selling would be the doctor's only cure, don't want that yet do we? Financial stocks and Real Estate and Tech beg to be bought for a short term move.
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Stock Market screams for short term bounce but trend says LOWER! Short squeeze = missing key ingredient. Cap gain tax selling selling and volatility regression cycle says snap back but far from capitulation yet.
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Stock Market threatens cyclical range expansion lower. "Blow-Out Bottom" for Baldilocks err.. Goldilocks I mean? Market Breadth statistics on Friday under healthy market conditions would strongly favor the probabilities of a 1-2 day bounce. If Stock Market continues sell-off into Mon./Tues. by >.5% with a close on the lows of the day, sentiment extreme and media flap should help ignite panic selling. This scenario invites Fed./Working Group contrarian whipsaw enviroment.
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Stock Market sell-off sets up for one last bounce or a deep wash-out for coming into January. Here's the question, if Finacial Stocks and Emerging Market Stocks say lower, but oversold S&P and other indices say look out for the whipsaw higher...(temporarily) what's the tie breaker?
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Stock Market short sell re-entry. End of year sell-off risks last two day short squeeze ralley into early Janruary 2008. Financial stocks, Small Cap stocks,Technology and Emerging Markets all showing signs of exhaustion rollover. Money printing to paper over the true condition of stock market and credit markets are "Bulls" only hope.
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Stock Market setting up for short sell re-entry. Near term risk is ~2% for end of year accounting snapshop.
Stock Market sets up for 1-3 day bounce. Potential near term cyclical low setting up for Santa Clause "drive by" rally. Thurs. through Mon. presents key time frame for counter trend move with emphasis on caution of one last stab lower first.
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