Gold, Oil and the U$D at all times the only issue. Can stocks survive without the constant destructive debasement of the currency ... stay tuned!

First new posting/video in 6+ weeks due to technical issues. Any requests for content or questions please call or email. Stock market breaks range lower although divergence in R2K & NDX is "conundrum".
"Goldilocks the Global Growth Princess" is at risk of be exposed as "Baldilocks the Transvestite Prostitute"". note to Tres/Fed, more lipstick... quickly!!!

Stock Market Choke Points for 2008 part 5C
By: TimingStrategies.com

At this point… with oil hitting pretty much $138 today/this week and the response by the stock market on Thur.6/5, oil up ~$5.00 and the S&P up ~20 points on that same day, “Goldilocks the global growth princess” gets all the blather… then to see oil up ~ $10.00 Fri. 6/ 6 and the S&P down ~40 points, Goldilocks looks more like “Baldilocks the transvestite prostitute”. At the risk of being redundant from our last report, look at oil priced in U$ dollars in the chart below. The dollar in this chart is inverted to demonstrate the craven destruction of its value vs. the price of oil. That said...this week’s dramatic move in oil is not as easily dismissed solely on the dollar this time. Either we are seeing a temporary spike top in oil, (maybe $140.00 -$142.50 or so) or this is an early warning sign of something very serious and ominous upon us about to occur.

The divergence between the S&P/Dow vs. the R2K/NDX is my conundrum. Resolution higher for the S&P and Dow was my estimation for as far out as Mon./Tues. June 9th/10nth with a price target for the Dow at ~12050 and ~1350-1320 on the S&P for a short term bounce. That previous estimation is now currently suspect due again to divergence amongst other indices, but more importantly, the nature of the price structure on the S&P as it has developed this last week., Oil and the U$ Dollar are the big “its” of things presently. If oil can put in a slightly higher high on Mon/Tues say ~$140.00-$142.50 and then sell off below ~$135 or more and at the same time the stock indices on the Dow and S&P hit those numbers mentioned above, I will possibly get a short term buy signal from our Rydex EOD system that will probably require us to cover our current 40% short position by at least ½ to possibly getting long by 35%-120%. This will only be considered a very short term position switch until the S&P can close back above the 1375-1385 price level, the Dow needs to close above ~12350-12450 for any long position to be sustained.

Longer term I am still very bearish, but due to the short term oversold conditions of particularly the Dow and the Financial/Banking sectors I am looking for a snapback rally, provided we get at least another ~1.5% -2.5% sell-off follow thru on Mon/Tues with the worst being the better scenario. The clue or tell that I am seeing that possibly implies a worst than statistically normal sell-off potential in the cards at this time are the emerging markets which are far more volatile than here in the U.S. An accelerated break down in the EEM, EWZ, FXI and EFA are threatening a regression bounce next week here in the U.S.
S&P basis SPY
These items with consideration of the previous banking problems that have been temporarily shoved back into the closet again, the continuous Wall Street bailouts and etc. can on the outlier basis, create the domino effect of a October 1987 style 1-5 day panic sell-off. I do not predict, forecast or even estimate these types of scenarios as they are almost impossible to gauge unless you are on the “inside”. Conditions for an event of such magnitude have been building for decades and yet nothing in over 20 years… although true capitulation has been averted many times, someday… the printing press will be out of paper ammo or no one will want it anymore.

This is by no means a recommendation to buy, sell or make any investment whatsoever.
BTW,

Visit TimingStrategies.com to see this Video Commentary


Stock market range still in effect, 1380-1400 at the local top end causing churn congestion while 1340-1320 = the first maybe... on the low end yet to be seen. Current stock market price action demonstrating very similar behavior to that of the June 2006 to 3rd/4rth week of July 2006 thru 1st week August 2006. XLE / Oils at top of current 13 day cycle so a potential 3-5% quick counter trend short set-up in effect for DUG with tight stop mandatory. GLD\GDX and XLF looking for quick move, SMH false break-out or not????

Stock Market Commentary 03-31-08

End of quarter rotation setting up for XLF,XLE,GDX,GLD,DBA etc: Short term unwinding = opportunity in sharp volatility expansions. Too many people looking for the same thing may squelch a good thing though in the immeadiatte time being

Stock Market Choke Points
By TimingStrategies.com
From our last edition, our first long entry of 50% of account value in our Rydex EOD system was made in the indices basket at B1 on 03/07/08. The major premise for the allocation was a test of the highs on the local range of the S&P cash of 1380-1400 or ~138.00-140.00 basis on the SPY. I don’t like changing planned management campaigns on one day’s price action but I like even less making any absolute statements or commitments to market positions and their ultimate direction. The reason being is the simple fact that when one gets married to their position, more often than not they will end up being divorced from their money!

SPY